Narrow advantage for Morena in last poll before Mexico State vote

A new Economista/Mitofsky poll for the Mexico State gubernatorial race shows Morena candidate Delfina Gómez with a slim lead over the PRI-ista Alfredo Del Mazo.  The campaigns end this coming Wednesday, and the vote is on Sunday, June 4.

The poll was carried out from May 25-27, and gives Gómez a 3.5% lead over Del Mazo.  According to Mitofsky, Del Mazo peaked at the beginning of May and has been losing ground, with the Morena candidate being the main beneficiary.  The other two main candidates, Josefina Vázquez of the PAN and Juan Zepeda of the PRD have held steady The 1,000 person poll has a statistical margin of error of ±3.1%.

The poll probably does not reflect the May 26 announcement by the PT candidate Óscar González, who is polling at 2%, withdrawing and asking his supporters to back Gómez.

Other recent polls have shown Del Mazo with a lead, and most observers think the determining factor will be voter turnout, which has historically been 50% or less for gubernatorial elections in the state.

State of Mexico election still wide open

A new poll by El Universal gives PRI candidate Alfredo del Mazo a narrow lead over Morena candidate Delfina Gómez in the race of State of Mexico governor.  PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez has slipped to fourth place — after a poor debate performance on April 25 and a lackluster campaign — while Juan Zepeda of the PRD is now in third.  Most surprisingly, however, the share of voters who are undecided rose from 31% in April to 38% in May.  The election is on June 4, and the second and last candidate debate is tomorrow night.

Of the candidates, Zepeda has the highest favorability rating (+37%), while Del Mazo has the highest disapproval rating (-43%).

The survey also shows that while 46% approve the performance of current PRI Governor Eruviel Ávila (vs. 41% disapproval) , 7 in 10 would like to see a change in the party controlling the state.

 

Morena and PRI candidates tied in Mexico State

On the eve of the first debate between the candidates, a new Reforma poll published today showed that Delfina Gómez (Morena) and Alfredo del Mazo (PRI) continue to be tied for the lead in the Mexico State gubernatorial election, with 28-29% of the vote each.  Josefina Vázquez (PAN) has slipped to 22%, while Juan Zepeda (PRD) has risen slightly to 14%.  (The published results are adjusted for the 29% who are undecided.)

Gómez also leads del Mazo in almost all other indicators (“more trustworthy”, “closer to the people”, etc.), except in the category experience, where del Mazo is ahead.  The Morena candidate has a much stronger favorability rating — 27% favorable vs 15% unfavorable.  Only 20% of those polled view del Mazo favorably, while 37% see him unfavorably.

All five regular party candidates for Governor will participate in tonight’s 90-minute televised debate. One of the two independents (Castell) may join, while the registration of the other (Pastor) was suspended after legal challenges.

 

 

 

GEA-ISA polls shows depth of political discontent

A new quarterly poll by GEA-ISA for March 2017 provides good insight into Mexican political perceptions.  While the bottom line for candidate preferences are similar to other polls, following are some of the highlights that come from a more comprehensive survey.

Net favorable/unfavorable ratings of presidential contenders

• Ricardo Anaya (PAN) is the only potential candidate with a net positive approval rating: +1%.
• Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a net negative rating of only -1%. This is very different from his previous two runs for the presidency.
• All others have large net unfavorable ratings. Politicians are a very discredited breed in Mexico.

The performance of the Enrique Peña Nieto government

• The evaluation worsened along every dimension surveyed, compared to both Nov. 2016 and March 2016.  Only 19% approve of his performance as President (down 25% in one year), and 77% disapprove.
• His greatest accomplishment as President: Nothing (43%).  His biggest mistake: the gasoline price increases (18% ).

Edomex gubernatorial campaigns kick-off; polls show PRI back in lead

The campaigns for Governor of the State of Mexico officially kicked off just after midnight on Monday morning, with the three leading candidates holding large public meetings.

 

A new poll in El Financiero, shows PRI candidate Alfredo Del Mazo back in the lead with 32%, recovering from the public’s strong reaction to the January gasoline price shock.  The PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota — who doesn’t really have roots in the state — is holding steady at 26%.  Delfina Gómez of Morena has risen strongly to tie her, taking votes from the PRD, which continues to fade.  (These percentages exclude undecided voters — 32% of those surveyed.)

In his kickoff, Alfredo del Mazo promised to make the state the safest in the country, with  more security video cameras and panic buttons on public buses (the frequent target of robberies and hijackings) and to expand further social programs, including giving housewives a “pink salary.”

PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota promised to put an end to “the corrupting PRI,” and to find a place for the state’s ruling families next to the fossils in the history museum.  (Edomex is one of five states where the PRI has never lost the governor’s palace.)

Morena candidate Delfina Gómez also promised to break the PRI’s monopoly in power, saying she “knew the pain of hunger. ”

All three parties are bringing the full force of their national organizations to bear — and in the case of the PRI, also the federal government.  Cabinet secretaries have been in the state an average of three times per week for the past seven months, for ribbon cuttings or to give away everything from washing machines to chickens under the banner of “social assistance.”

The stakes are clearly highest for the PRI.  A loss would probably be a stake in the heart for their hopes of keeping control of the government in 2018, and strip President Peña Nieto of whatever small prestige he still commands.

Sources:  El Universal, Reforma, Milenio

 

 

 

Is Peña Nieto losing control of the succession?

Doubts are emerging about President Peña Nieto’s ability to keep control of the succession process, given the abysmal polling of the potential PRI candidates for the 2018 presidential election.

Until now, almost all have assumed that EPN would pick his successor using the “dedazo,”  the big finger, that PRI presidents in the pre-democratic era exercised to indicate their successor.   Indeed, EPN has maintained iron control of gubernatorial nominations through his term.

An anonymous PRI official told columnist Salvador García Soto,

We have to tell President Peña that the method for picking gubernatorial candidates until now won’t work to solve the succession issue inside the PRI.  The president needs to innovate, open the process, and let many aspirants run in an open manner to help the PRI reposition itself in an adverse environment in which the other parties and candidates have big advantages.

According to García Soto, Presidencia’s last internal poll shows that all the potential PRI candidates finish a distant third against AMLO and any PAN candidate.  The best positioned of the PRIistas is Health Secretary José Narro.  In a trial ballot, Narro captures 19% of the vote, AMLO 29.6%, and Margarita Zavala of the PAN 24.3%.

These PRI dissidents are promoting the idea that the PRI National Assembly, scheduled to meet at the beginning of August, should decide the methods for selecting candidates for the 2018 races.

Poll shows strong public support for using Army and Marines to fight organized crime

A poll carried out by the Chamber of Deputies, which is currently debating the new internal security law, showed that almost 80% of those surveyed supported giving legal authorization for the Army and the Marines to fight organized crime.

The survey of 900 persons carried out by the Chamber’s Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion also showed some clear limitations on the powers they approved the military having.

Those surveyed said the military should:

• Be able to put down demonstrations using force: 74% NO
• Be able to carry out communications surveillance or collect personal information: 55% NO
• Be able to carry out criminal investigations: 61% YES
• Be able to take criminal complaints and testimony of criminal acts: 62% YES

 

The poll also showed in stark terms the difference between public confidence in the Army and the Marines lack of trust in local and state police forces, and even the Federal Police.

Reported in Milenio.

 

Reforma poll: 3 way tie for Governor of the State of Mexico

A new Reforma poll shows the three principal contenders for Governor of the State of Mexico to be essentially tied, not including the 26% of those surveyed who are undecided.

79% say they prefer a change of governing party (the PRI has never lost control of the state), and 41% say they would never vote for the PRI — compared to 14% and 8% rejecting Morena and the PAN, respectively.

On the other hand, some 53% approve the performance of the outgoing PRI governor, Eruviel Ávila.

PRI candidate Del Mazo scores highest on the positive attribute of experience (31%) while Delfina Gómez of Morena scores highest on ‘closeness to the people’ (23%).  Del Mazo also scores highest on the negative attributes of ‘steal more'(36%) and ‘govern for the powerful (40%).

 

 

 

 

AMLO’s Morena Party leads presidential preferences in new poll

For the first time, a major poll showed Morena — the party of Andrés Manuel López Obrador — rising to the top spot in preferences for the 2018 presidential election.

The Reforma poll gave Morena 27%, up 5% since December.  (The poll results are adjusted for the 25% of respondents who didn’t answer or had no preference.)

Q: “If the Presidential election were today, for which party would you vote for President?”

 

Gasoline price hikes push President’s approval rating to new low

The January 1 gasoline price hikes have crushed whatever residual popularity the government had.  The latest Reforma poll showed Peña Nieto’s approval rating cut in half to a mere 12% in just one month and a corresponding increase in his disapproval rating.

Q: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Enrique Peña Nieto is doing his work as President?”

59% of those surveyed said the gasoline price hikes had affected them “a lot” and another 26% said “some.”  Three out of five said they held the President responsible for the state of the economy.