Official numbers show that Mexico set a new record for wrongful homicides in February, and that killings for the first two months of 2017 are up 29% from 2016.
The 1,838 investigations into wrongful homicides opened by the authorities in February — the preferred measure — and the 3,779 in January-February were higher than the numbers registered at the height of the Calderón government’s drug wars in 2011.
In terms for rates per 100k, the numbers are equivalent to the 2011 peak, given population growth. (See chart from Milenio.)
Security columnist Alejandro Hope observes:
January was bad. February was horrible. More than 20 victims per day — sufficient to fill a dumping ground like Colinas de Santa Fe in less than two weeks. … The principal officials in the security area continue to deny the gravity of the situation, fighting over statistics. …. In the principal decision centers there isn’t any interest in doing more than administer the disaster. … The problem, I fear, is one much more of will than of ideas or resources.”
A poll carried out by the Chamber of Deputies, which is currently debating the new internal security law, showed that almost 80% of those surveyed supported giving legal authorization for the Army and the Marines to fight organized crime.
The survey of 900 persons carried out by the Chamber’s Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion also showed some clear limitations on the powers they approved the military having.
Those surveyed said the military should:
- Be able to put down demonstrations using force: 74% NO
- Be able to carry out communications surveillance or collect personal information: 55% NO
- Be able to carry out criminal investigations: 61% YES
- Be able to take criminal complaints and testimony of criminal acts: 62% YES
The poll also showed in stark terms the difference between public confidence in the Army and the Marines lack of trust in local and state police forces, and even the Federal Police.
Reported in Milenio.
Juan José Esparragoza Monzón, aka “El Negro,” escaped from a prison in Culiacán in a mid-day jailbreak. He was on the Justice Ministry’s list of 122 top targets; his capture on January 19 was announced in a press conference by Mexico’s national security commissioner, Renato Sales. El Negro was being held pending extradition to the U.S. He is believed to be one of the top financial operators of the Sinaloa Cartel. His father “El Azul,” is one of the cartel’s top leaders–perhaps the top leader after El Chapo’s recapture last year. “El Negro” is also married to the youngest daughter of the former head of the Beltran Leyva cartel, who was killed in a high profile military operation in 2009. Source: López-Doriga.
The disclosure that more than 250 skulls have been discovered just outside the port district of Veracruz has once more reminded Mexicans of how poorly their government functions in terms of providing security and solving crimes.
The remains were found by a human rights group over many months, acting on a tip from traffickers. A spokesman for a group of mothers searching for missing children said:
“What we have found is abominable and it reveals the state of corruption, violence and impunity that reigns not only in Veracruz, but in all of Mexico,” Ms. Diaz said.
“A reality that speaks of the collusion of authorities with organized crime in Veracruz, for it is impossible to see what we found without the participation of authorities,” she said.
The 3-part story by American journalist Andrea Noel illustrates gruesomely the kafkaesque nightmare of Mexican police investigations — and why most Mexicans will do anything to avoid going to the police.
Foreign Minister Videgaray testimony in the Senate 2/28 included several red lines and must-haves.
U.S. immigration law and enforcement
- A strictly U.S. domestic issue, and Mexico will not get involved in an internal U.S. debate, BUT:
- Mexico will not accept any non-Mexican deportees.
- Mexico will protect the human rights of Mexicans in the U.S., and pursue any violations in international forums
- There needs to be continued cooperation and coordination on border security matters; threats and insults need to cease
- No militarization of the border
- Mexicans leaving the U.S. (both voluntarily and involuntarily) must keep their rights to Social Security earned
- U.S. and Mexico need to cooperate on Central America
We will not negotiate the Free Trade Agreement from the defendant’s dock. Any negotiation between the parties must start from the premise that this has been an agreement that has generated important benefits for all three parties.
- Mexico will undertake the trade negotiations, “without pause, but without haste”
- No tariffs or quotas.
- Negotiation should include mechanisms to support rising wages for Mexican workers, so the “production model” isn’t based on cheap labor.
- Construction of the wall is a hostile act, and Mexico will not collaborate in any way; but it is a sovereign matter for the U.S.
- Mexico will pursue any violation of international law in international forums.
U.S. Tax regime
- Mexico must be prepared to change its own tax regime if changes to US tax law affect Mexican interests or the economic competitiveness.
Drug trafficking / cartels
- U.S. must assume its responsibility to reduce demand, and stop the flow of guns and money.
- No measures that restrict the flow of remittances or increase their cost.
Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray appeared before the full Senate to present outline the government’s posture on the negotiations with the U.S. across the full range of issues. He and the Senate agreed that they would prepare a document “to regulate and delimit” the negotiations, to be signed by both the administration and the Senate. The Senate leadership said they would have a draft to discuss when Videgaray returns on 3/7.
The principal points Videgaray made are here.
The major question is whether Mexico is willing to negotiate trade issues on a stand-alone basis, or will insist on an all-or-nothing “integral” negotiation, where trade, migration, the border, cooperation on security, and drug trafficking are all on the table. The former offers the prospect of a revised NAFTA in less than a year. The latter would ensure that nothing gets resolved before both countries move into full election mode in 2018.
The Mexican government is operating on the assumption that NAFTA negotiations will begin in June, although the Trump administration has not yet given the required 90-day notice to Congress.