Poll: PRI and PAN build advantage, but no absolute majority likely

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

The latest Mitofsky national survey indicates that the PRI and the PAN continue to increase their voting share, while the PRD slipped again and minor party votes increased slightly. Looking only at probable voters and eliminating the undecideds, Mitofsky’s central estimate is that the PRI will win 37.1% of the vote against the PAN’s 33.0%.  The PRD would capture 16.5%.  All the minor parties, except the Social Democrats (PSD) are likely to get the minimum 2% needed to maintain their registration. In terms of seats in the Chamber of Deputies, Mitofsky estimates that the PRI will get between 210-238 seats, doubling their current representation but falling short of an absolute majority; this includes districts where the PRI is running in coalition with the PVEM. According to Mitofsky, the major parties are likely to be back very close to the distribution of seats in the 2003 mid-term election. 

Chamber of Deputies Seats

Chamber of Deputies Seats

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