Poll: PRI and Peña Nieto lead presidential preferences

A Reforma national poll finds the PRI “alone in first place” in preferences for the 2012 presidential elections. “The PRI seems to be winning support nationally, including among sectors that were averse to them in the last election … younger voters, the more highly educated, and independents,” the pollsters write. Among the general population, Enrique Peña Nieto stands head and shoulders above his rivals in the PRI. López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard are neck and neck in the PRD (although AMLO has a wide lead among party members). In the PAN, there is no clear favorite, with Santiago Creel, Josefina Vázquez, and César Nava each commanding only modest support. (Reforma 5/30)

First gay marriages celebrated in Mexico City

The first five gay couples were joined in marriage in the Old Town Hall in Mexico City, under the Federal District’s law passed last December. Mayor Marcelo Ebrard, the head of the D.F. Legislative Assembly, and the head of the D.F. judiciary all attended the ceremony.   The day before, the Supreme Court turned down an appeal from Attorney General Arturo Chávez to block the law from going into effect (without ruling on the merits). The Supreme Court had previously rejected suits by several states to stop the D.F. law. The spokesman for the Archbishop of Mexico City directly attacked Ebrard:

It is completely clear that Marcelo Ebrard is responsible for the approval and execution of these laws that are destructive of the family. He cannot hide his aversion to the Church and to the majority of the inhabitants that he governs, who profess the Christian faith and who reject the perversion of their dearest and most respected values, such as the family.

(Universal 3/11, Reforma 3/11)

Poll: View towards 2012 is all PRI

A Mitofsky survey looking toward the 2012 presidential race shows the PRI leading voter preferences with 40%, compared to 16% for the PAN and 12% for the PRD. In answer to who would you like to see as president, Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto was far ahead of all others. When priistas are asked about their preferred candidates, Peña Nieto is followed by Veracruz governor Fidel Herrera and party leader Beatriz Paredes. Panista preferences are for Senator Santiago Creel, congressional leader Vázquez Mota, and Jalisco governor Emilio González. Among perredistas, AMLO tops Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard by 2:1. (www.consulta.com.mx)

Parties trade blame for flooding

Record downpours during what is normally the dry season caused flooding in the poorer districts of Mexico City and adjacent areas of Mexico State, as well as Michoacán and Guerrero. At least 22 persons died in Michoacán. In the capital region, two major drainage canals broke their banks, leaving neighborhoods 6 ft deep in raw sewage, and closing the main Mexico-Puebla highway. President Calderón, Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto, and Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard toured the affected areas. National Water Commission head José Luis Luege blamed the Mexico City government for closing the deep drainage system for repairs despite forecasts of bad weather, while Ebrard blamed the feds for underspending on water infrastructure. (Reforma 2/8, Excelsior 2/8)

Final curtain for ‘Juanito’

After occupying the Iztapalapa borough offices for nine days, Rafael Acosta, aka ‘Juanito,’ submitted his resignation as borough president. The turnaround occurred after Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard threatened to prosecute him for electoral law violations. (Juanito falsified his birth certificate and voter identification card when he registered as a candidate for the July elections.) Ebrard quickly nominated AMLO-favorite Clara Brugada, who was borough president during Juanito’s first temporary leave of absence, and she was ratified by the D.F. assembly.

Ebrard is most popular leftist political figure

A BGC/Excelsior national telephone poll found that Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard continues to be the most popular PRD figure in Mexico. Those having a good or very good opinion of Ebrard were 59% while only 12% had a bad or very bad opinion. AMLO continues to be the best-known figure on the Left, but his negatives outweigh his positives by 49% to 29%. The other firebrands (Muñoz Ledo, Dolores Padierna, and Fernández Noroña) also have very high negatives. (Excelsior 11/2)

 

Juanito steps aside

Rafael Acosta, aka Juanito, announced that he would seek a leave of absence for 59 days immediately after being sworn in as borough president of Iztapalapa on October 1st. The announcement was made after a meeting with Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard. Juanito said he was making the decision for reasons of health and so that “Iztapalapa could live in tranquility.” He said that he would nominate Clara Brugada as his minister of government, which would clear the way for her to take control of the borough government after he steps down.  His supporters will get a few posts in the borough government. Noted columnist Salvador García Soto:

Juanito, the comic parody created by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is finished; politics destroyed him. The popular personality who ridiculed [AMLO] and put the entire Mexican Left in check was finally was broken. In exchange for a few public offices and startled by the machinery of power that had raised him up, he wound up ridiculed and humiliated. Thus ends one of the most folkloric and embarrassing episodes of modern Mexican politics.”

(Universal 9/29)

Poll: Peña Nieto tops popularity rankings

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A survey taken prior to the elections confirms Enrique Peña Nieto’s position as the Mexican political figure with the highest approval rating, although his name recognition lags slightly behind President Calderón and AMLO. Beatriz Paredes, the PRI party president and architect of the election campaign comes in second among priistas, while Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones lags badly. Among panistas, only Josefina Vázquez Mota, the former cabinet secretary and likely leader of the PAN in Congress, and Senator Santiago Creel ranked highly. The top-ranked perredistas are Marcelo Ebrard and former Michoacán governor Lázaro Cárdenas. López Obrador’s net approval rating fell from 4.8 in March/April 09 to 4.0 in June. Writing separately about “Golden Boy” Peña Nieto, political scientist Denise Dresser finds in him the model for the PRI’s election victory: “A carefully thought-out, perfectly planned equation: pretty face + money + broadcast TV + advertising + the PRI dinosaurs = electoral victory.” (Excelsior 7/13, Reforma 7/13)

(Net positive rating: % approval – % disapproval; Approval index = weighted average score, 1-10 scale)

Iztapalapa pits AMLO against the PRD

The election for borough president of Iztapalapa, the key to the PRD’s grip on Mexico City, was further complicated by Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s call for his supporters to vote for the PT candidate, who pledged not to serve if elected. Leo Zuckermann describes the scenario: 

Surreal México is where Clara Brugada wins the PRD primary election to be the candidate for Iztapalapa borough president. Her opponent, Silvia Oliva, files a complaint with the party bodies, arguing that there was fraud. The party authorities procrastinate. Finally, Oliva goes to the Federal Electoral Tribunal. This body nullifies the vote in several voting places where there was fraud. Oliva wins. She is the new candidate. But the ballots have already been printed. Under the logo of the PRD, Brugada appears. The Tropical Messiah [AMLO] makes his entrance. He is annoyed because his political ally has been thrown out. He organizes a meeting with his supporters. He calls on them not to vote for the Brugada who appears on the ballot, because that is in fact a vote for Oliva. He invites them to vote for a fellow named Juanito, puppet number one, who is the candidate of another party, the PT. AMLO announces that if he wins, Juanito will immediately resign from his post, and that as the cacique of the Left, he will call on another of his puppets, Marcelo Ebrard, the Mayor of Mexico City, to nominate Brugada to replace Juanito as Iztapalapa president. This would be ratified by the DF Legislative Assembly, AMLO’s third puppet. Juanito swears to do what the boss ordered. Conclusion: if Brugada wins, it’s Oliva who wins. If Juanito wins, Juanito loses and Brugada wins. Pure surrealism.

PRD party president Jesús Ortega issued a statement saying, “Any party militant who calls for a vote for the candidates of another party is, in reality, betraying our principles and seeking to deceive the citizens who are activists, sympathize, or work for the PRD.” (Excelsior 6/18, Reforma 6/18)

Ebrard ‘unveils’ himself as presidential candidate

In a Spanish-language Reuters interview, Mexico City mayor
Marcelo Ebrard publicly acknowledged his desire to be President in
2012: “I always say: Why not? It depends on the work that we carry
out [governing Mexico City] and the results that we achieve.” He
said the most likely scenario was a contest between himself and
Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto. Ebrard said that, as
president, his principal objectives would be to rein in the power of big
business, including Carlos Slim and Televisa, and to close the income
gap between the richest and poorest parts of Mexico. Noted
the Templo Mayor column: “Marcelo appears to be following the
strategy of [Vicente] Fox: unveil oneself three years in advance.”
The Bajo Reserva column argued: “If anyone doubts the distance
between Marcelo Ebrard and his sometime patron, Andrés Manuel
López Obrador, his statements … confirm it in spades. What Ebrard
did was much more than an unveiling: the interview outlined the
foundations for a government. Curiously, the ‘Chuchos’ [the PRD
faction controlled by Jesús Ortega and Jesús Zambrano] were calm
the day after, while the lopezobradoristas were beside themselves.”
(Reuters Mexico 5/14, Universal 5/15, Reforma 5/18, Universal 5/18)