AMLO starts prepping for 2012

Andrés Manuel López Obrador celebrated three years as the country’s “legitimate president” with a rally in Mexico City’s Zocalo a week prior to President Calderón’s commemoration. AMLO was prominently accompanied by Martín Esparza, the defrocked head of the Luz y Fuerza electrical workers union. AMLO said he had completed his pilgrimage to all 2,430 municipalities across Mexico and was refounding his movement. “Thinking of the transformation of the country, and looking toward 2012, we need to develop a new Alternative Project for the Nation,” he said. AMLO said the platform would be centered on 10 themes: “to rescue the State and put it at the service of the people; democratize the mass media; create a new economy; combat monopolies; abolish tax breaks; practice politics as an ethical imperative grounded in ‘republican austerity;’ strengthen the energy sector; achieve food sovereignty; establish a welfare State; and promote a new current of thought.” AMLO clearly believes his principal opponent in 2012 will be Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto. (Excelsior 11/23)

Ebrard is most popular leftist political figure

A BGC/Excelsior national telephone poll found that Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard continues to be the most popular PRD figure in Mexico. Those having a good or very good opinion of Ebrard were 59% while only 12% had a bad or very bad opinion. AMLO continues to be the best-known figure on the Left, but his negatives outweigh his positives by 49% to 29%. The other firebrands (Muñoz Ledo, Dolores Padierna, and Fernández Noroña) also have very high negatives. (Excelsior 11/2)

 

Elections: PRI wins big in Coahuila and Tabasco

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The PRI extended its string of election wins with victories in Coahuila and Tabasco. In Coahuila, the PRI won an estimated 31 of the 38 mayoralities, including the former PAN strongholds of Torreón and Ramos Arzipe. The PRI share of the vote was 60%, the PAN 25% and the PRD 2% (PREP Coahuila, Reforma 10/19).

In Tabasco, the PRI unseated the PRD in Mascupana, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s hometown, and kept control of the large cities. The PAN, not a major factor in the state, appears likely to win 2 towns formerly held by the PRI.  The PRI won 44% of the total vote for mayors, the PRD 38%, and the PAN 8%. In the state congress, the PRI appears to have won 14 of the 21 direct election districts, the PRD 6, and the PAN 1. (PREP Tabasco, Universal 10/19)

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Juanito steps aside

Rafael Acosta, aka Juanito, announced that he would seek a leave of absence for 59 days immediately after being sworn in as borough president of Iztapalapa on October 1st. The announcement was made after a meeting with Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard. Juanito said he was making the decision for reasons of health and so that “Iztapalapa could live in tranquility.” He said that he would nominate Clara Brugada as his minister of government, which would clear the way for her to take control of the borough government after he steps down.  His supporters will get a few posts in the borough government. Noted columnist Salvador García Soto:

Juanito, the comic parody created by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is finished; politics destroyed him. The popular personality who ridiculed [AMLO] and put the entire Mexican Left in check was finally was broken. In exchange for a few public offices and startled by the machinery of power that had raised him up, he wound up ridiculed and humiliated. Thus ends one of the most folkloric and embarrassing episodes of modern Mexican politics.”

(Universal 9/29)

Poll: Peña Nieto tops popularity rankings

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A survey taken prior to the elections confirms Enrique Peña Nieto’s position as the Mexican political figure with the highest approval rating, although his name recognition lags slightly behind President Calderón and AMLO. Beatriz Paredes, the PRI party president and architect of the election campaign comes in second among priistas, while Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones lags badly. Among panistas, only Josefina Vázquez Mota, the former cabinet secretary and likely leader of the PAN in Congress, and Senator Santiago Creel ranked highly. The top-ranked perredistas are Marcelo Ebrard and former Michoacán governor Lázaro Cárdenas. López Obrador’s net approval rating fell from 4.8 in March/April 09 to 4.0 in June. Writing separately about “Golden Boy” Peña Nieto, political scientist Denise Dresser finds in him the model for the PRI’s election victory: “A carefully thought-out, perfectly planned equation: pretty face + money + broadcast TV + advertising + the PRI dinosaurs = electoral victory.” (Excelsior 7/13, Reforma 7/13)

(Net positive rating: % approval – % disapproval; Approval index = weighted average score, 1-10 scale)

PRD: Seeking internal reconciliation

At a meeting of PRD leaders, party president Jesús Ortega retreated from  his demand to expel AMLO for supporting candidates against the PRD, while reaffirming his belief that AMLO would never again be the party’s presidential candidate. The minutes of the meeting, read by Zacatecas governor Amalia García, said, “We believe that everyone is useful, and we will not stay on the route of throwing out or expelling anyone.”  López Obrador, for his part, gave an interview that stopped characterizing the PRD and Ortega’s New Left faction as part of the ‘mafia’ that has kept him out of power. (Reforma 7/13)

Iztapalapa pits AMLO against the PRD

The election for borough president of Iztapalapa, the key to the PRD’s grip on Mexico City, was further complicated by Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s call for his supporters to vote for the PT candidate, who pledged not to serve if elected. Leo Zuckermann describes the scenario: 

Surreal México is where Clara Brugada wins the PRD primary election to be the candidate for Iztapalapa borough president. Her opponent, Silvia Oliva, files a complaint with the party bodies, arguing that there was fraud. The party authorities procrastinate. Finally, Oliva goes to the Federal Electoral Tribunal. This body nullifies the vote in several voting places where there was fraud. Oliva wins. She is the new candidate. But the ballots have already been printed. Under the logo of the PRD, Brugada appears. The Tropical Messiah [AMLO] makes his entrance. He is annoyed because his political ally has been thrown out. He organizes a meeting with his supporters. He calls on them not to vote for the Brugada who appears on the ballot, because that is in fact a vote for Oliva. He invites them to vote for a fellow named Juanito, puppet number one, who is the candidate of another party, the PT. AMLO announces that if he wins, Juanito will immediately resign from his post, and that as the cacique of the Left, he will call on another of his puppets, Marcelo Ebrard, the Mayor of Mexico City, to nominate Brugada to replace Juanito as Iztapalapa president. This would be ratified by the DF Legislative Assembly, AMLO’s third puppet. Juanito swears to do what the boss ordered. Conclusion: if Brugada wins, it’s Oliva who wins. If Juanito wins, Juanito loses and Brugada wins. Pure surrealism.

PRD party president Jesús Ortega issued a statement saying, “Any party militant who calls for a vote for the candidates of another party is, in reality, betraying our principles and seeking to deceive the citizens who are activists, sympathize, or work for the PRD.” (Excelsior 6/18, Reforma 6/18)

Brothers of Senator Monreal arrested on drug charges

Two brothers of Senator Ricardo Monreal, the head of the PT Senate
bloc, were indicted on drug charges by the federal Ministry of
Justice. They are the owners (along with the Senator’s daughter
Maria) of a large drying plant for chilies in Fresnillo, Zacatecas. In
January, the army seized 14.5 tons of marijuana in the plant. One of
the brothers arrested, David, is currently mayor of Fresnillo. A key
ally of López Obrador, Monreal became the head of the PT Senate
bloc in January without giving up his PRD affiliation. Today PRD
secretary general Hortensia Aragon tried to distance the party from
Monreal, saying that his affiliation ended when he joined the PT Senate
caucus. (Reforma 5/18)

Ebrard ‘unveils’ himself as presidential candidate

In a Spanish-language Reuters interview, Mexico City mayor
Marcelo Ebrard publicly acknowledged his desire to be President in
2012: “I always say: Why not? It depends on the work that we carry
out [governing Mexico City] and the results that we achieve.” He
said the most likely scenario was a contest between himself and
Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto. Ebrard said that, as
president, his principal objectives would be to rein in the power of big
business, including Carlos Slim and Televisa, and to close the income
gap between the richest and poorest parts of Mexico. Noted
the Templo Mayor column: “Marcelo appears to be following the
strategy of [Vicente] Fox: unveil oneself three years in advance.”
The Bajo Reserva column argued: “If anyone doubts the distance
between Marcelo Ebrard and his sometime patron, Andrés Manuel
López Obrador, his statements … confirm it in spades. What Ebrard
did was much more than an unveiling: the interview outlined the
foundations for a government. Curiously, the ‘Chuchos’ [the PRD
faction controlled by Jesús Ortega and Jesús Zambrano] were calm
the day after, while the lopezobradoristas were beside themselves.”
(Reuters Mexico 5/14, Universal 5/15, Reforma 5/18, Universal 5/18)

Ahumada book implicates everyone

Carlos Ahumada, the protagonist of the so-called video scandals of 2004 that stained Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s image as a squeaky clean politician, has written a tell-all book (Derecho de Replica – ‘Right of Reply’) that implicates members across the political establishment, but especially the PRI and PAN, in corrupt acts involving Ahumada himself. He has proven himself to be an unreliable self-promoter, but his allegations play well to Mexican instincts that their political system is, as Ramón Alberto Garza puts it, “a gigantic screen of colors, emblems, and parties, where principles, ideals, platforms, voters, and citizens don’t count.” Columnist Yuriria Sierra called it, “A 375-page gift to AMLO’s movement.”

A bit of a recap: In 2004, five videotapes (filmed by Ahumada himself) were released to the Mexico media showing him making cash payoffs to René Bejarano, one of AMLO’s closest associates and at the time a member of the DF Legislative Assembly, and Carlos Ímaz, the head of the Mexico City borough of Tlalpan. The payoffs were to secure construction contracts for companies that Ahumada, a naturalized Mexican of Argentine origin, owned. AMLO was at the time Mexico City’s mayor. The tapes were broadcast on TV by reporter Victor Trujillo, who received the tapes from then PAN Senator Fernando Doring. Ahumada also financed 17 gambling excursions of the DF Finance chief, Gustavo Ponce, who was separately videotaped at the gaming tables in Las Vegas. The disclosures coincided with the Fox government’s controversial attempt to strip AMLO of his legal immunity while in office. Bejarano, Ponce, and Ímaz all resigned in disgrace, though AMLO was never personally implicated. The threat of disclosures of more tapes hung over the 2006 presidential election campaign, although none surfaced. Ahumada himself was extradited from Cuba, where he had fled, was convicted of bribery. He now lives in Buenos Aires.