Homicide rates over time

The CIDAC think tank published an analysis of Mexico’s crime statistics. Much of the analysis centers on the homicide rate—the crime least likely to be underreported. For 2008, the national homicide rate was 10.6 per 100,000 persons. Of the total, organized crime related killings had a rate of 4.9, and all other homicides a rate of 5.7. The total rate is one-third below the 1997 peak.  Chihuahua had the highest murder rate (47.1), followed by Sinaloa (29.5). Fourteen of the 32 states had homicide rates lower than the U.S. average of 5.6. While Mexico’s overall rate is double the U.S. rate, it is substantially below the levels in Brazil (25.3), Colombia (37.3), and Venezuela (48.0). (consulta.com.mx)

Cross country comparison

Andrés Manuel López Obrador celebrated three years as the country’s “legitimate president” with a rally in Mexico City’s Zocalo a week prior to President Calderón’s commemoration. AMLO was prominently accompanied by Martín Esparza, the defrocked head of the Luz y Fuerza electrical workers union. AMLO said he had completed his pilgrimage to all 2,430 municipalities across Mexico and was refounding his movement. “Thinking of the transformation of the country, and looking toward 2012, we need to develop a new Alternative Project for the Nation,” he said. AMLO said the platform would be centered on 10 themes: “to rescue the State and put it at the service of the people; democratize the mass media; create a new economy; combat monopolies; abolish tax breaks; practice politics as an ethical imperative grounded in ‘republican austerity;’ strengthen the energy sector; achieve food sovereignty; establish a welfare State; and promote a new current of thought.” AMLO clearly believes his principal opponent in 2012 will be Mexico state governor Enrique Peña Nieto. (Excelsior 11/23)

Finance Minister Agustín Carstens responded vigorously to the comments made earlier in the week by Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.  Speaking at a conference in Mexico, Stiglitz said that Mexico’s response to the global financial crisis had been “unusual” with a “relatively weak” fiscal stimulus in contrast to the actions of many other countries. He added that Mexico needed to diversify its exports, and that relying on economic recovery in the U.S. was unlikely to result in a strong recovery since the world’s growth is concentrated in Asia.  Stiglitz also said the government need to invest not only in infrastructure but also in technology, education, and programs for improving economic opportunity. Carstens responded by noting that the government had to respond to the twin crises that hit Mexico­–the global recession and the 800,000 b/d decline in oil production. “We did not have the option of contracting more debt. One has to act responsibly, and this is what President Calderón decided and did,” Carstens said. Economy Secretary Ernesto Cordero said that Stiglitz “needed to read a bit more on Mexico” before making comments. The Templo Mayor column observed: “Wow. Looks like the Minister of Finance has decided to celebrate the anniversary of the Revolution by shooting at Nobel Prize winners.” (Universal 11/19, 11/20, Reforma 11/20)

The former police chiefs of Monterrey and the suburb of Guadalupe were arrested during sweeps by the Army and the Federal Investigations Agency (AFI). The authorities also carried out searches of the police headquarters of the nearby suburbs of Escobedo, Apodaca, and Juárez. The Army continues to be in charge of police functions in the suburb of García, where the police chief (a retired Army general) was assassinated at the beginning of the month. According to García’s mayor, 22 cops have been arrested, and another 20 resigned. Of the remaining 108 cops, 30-35 are still under investigation. (Reforma 11/18, 11/16)

The full Chamber of Deputies voted 425 to 25, with 4 abstentions to pass the 2010 expenditure law. The PRI, PAN, PVEM, PANAL, and Convergencia all voted unanimously in favor. The PRD voted 45-18 to support the budget, while the PT voted 4-7 against. The vote took place in the early morning hours of the 17th, with the clocked stopped, since the legal deadline for passing the budget was the 15th. (diputados.gob.mx)

The budget commission of the Chamber of Deputies unanimously passed the 2010 expenditure budget at 4:30 am, after failing to meet the midnight legal deadline. PRI coordinator Francisco Rojas postponed four times the meeting of the full Chamber of Deputies, as factions within the party negotiated the reallocation of funds between the states and to different programs. The full Chamber is expected to vote on the package today. The final compromise was reflected in a basket of Ps. 96.6 billion of resources to be reallocated, an increase from the original proposal of Ps. 85 billion. Total expenditures were pegged at Ps. 3,176 billion – only marginally higher than the proposed budget sent by the Government.  One of the items that emerged from the congressional negotiations was the requirement that the Ministry of Finance present to congress an austerity plan by March 15 for longer-term improvements in the use of public resources. PRI deputy Sebastián Lerdo de Tejada explained, “We can’t ask the citizen to tighten his belt and not demand that the … executive, judicial, and legislative authorities do the same.”

The Templo Mayor column observed: “Almost everyone is content with the slicing up of the budget pie. The priistas are congratulating themselves because they … tied the hands of the federal government and got millions and millions as a gift for their governors. The panistas are also jubiliant; despite the dark warnings, at they end of the day they salvaged the resources for the three [social] programs dear to Felipe Calderón: the leafless Proarból, the coveted Oportunidades, and the supercharged Seguro Popular. (Excelsior 11/16, Universal 11/16, Reforma 11/16)

Mitofsky’s monthly national survey shows that support for President Calderón, while still high, declined 4 points from September to October to match the lowest levels of his administration. The President had a 58% approval rating, and 40% disapproval. At the same time, party identification with the PRI increased from 25% in May 2009 to 31% in October, while identification with the PAN fell from a recent high of 25% in January 2009 to 17% in October.  (www.consulta.com.mx)

The SME electrical workers union carried out protests across Mexico City, including blocking traffic on several expressways. There were scattered arrests and occasional use of teargas, but the demonstrations were largely peaceful. The Mexico City police estimated 100,000 marchers reached the Zocalo to hear defrocked union chief Martín Esparza speak. The Government’s offer of a special bonus payment to Luz y Fuerza workers who accepted the liquidation expired; more than 27,000, or 61% of those eligible, accepted the buyout. (Universal 11/12, 11/15)

In an interview aboard the presidential aircraft en route to Singapore for the APEC summit, President Felipe Calderón blamed the private sector for the failure of the government’s original tax proposal. “The business community acted with complete liberty: they were very critical of the government and broadly criticized the package. … This weakened the possibilities [for passage],” he said. Columnist Salvador García Soto noted: “The President’s verbal bombshells … confirm what we have been saying for several weeks: the relation between the Chief Executive and a good part of the private sector, above all the most influential names, has deteriorated to the point where it has become public. … A reflection of this distancing is that many of the principal captains of industry have started to build bridges to groups in the PRI.”  (Reforma 11/12, Universal 11/14)

The President was booed by fans at the inauguration of the new soccer stadium in Torreón. The video was widely circulated on You Tube.  TV Azteca, which broadcast the game, lowered the volume on the crowd noise to minimize the rare public show of disrespect for a sitting president. “The lusty booing that President Calderón received … is revealing of the enormous black mark that the people have put as their response to the fiscal reform. It has not passed unnoticed by society that the incapacity of the Calderón administration to put the brakes on government spending and the ease with which it decided – once again — to lay on the people already hit by the recession a higher tax burden, considered unjust and disproportionate,” said columnist Manuel J. Jáuregui. (Reforma 11/12, 11/13)