A poll carried out by El Universal of the approval ratings of the governors of each state showed the wide range of opinion across the nation. The four most popular governors (led by Ortega Bernés of Campeche—86% approval vs 14% disapproval) and the least popular (Ulises Ruíz of Oaxaca—22% vs 77%) were all from the PRI. Three of the least popular were from the PAN (Ortiz in Tlaxcala, Osuna in Baja California, and Adame in Morelos). In the six states where there was change of party in the gubernatorial elections last July, all but one were states where the balance of public opinion was strongly negative. (PRI states are shown in green, PAN blue, and PRD orange.) The most common failings of governors were not fighting crime and not knowing how to govern. (Universal 9/23)
A BGC-Excelsior national poll showed that respondents disapproved of the work that the Senate was doing by a margin of 66%-28%, with the disapproval rate rising through the sexenio. (The Chamber of Deputies shows a similar pattern.) Among the major parties, none are seen as being disposed to work for agreements across party lines. The PRI had been more favorably viewed, but lost its advantage over the past year. “In general terms, more and more persons think that to have a President whose party doesn’t have a majority in Congress damages democracy because it is difficult to reach agreements. … However, by 55% to 39%, they [also] think that it is beneficial if the party in power doesn’t have a majority in Congress because issues are discussed more deeply.” (Excelsior 9/13)
The campaigns close on June 30th, with the vote on July 4. Just a handful of states have close gubernatorial races. Columnist Leo Zuckermann writes, “It’s possible that the PRI will win each and every one of the 12 governorships that are in play. … There exists doubt in only four states. In all the rest, everything indicates that the [PRI] will win handily. … But they could also lose between one and four races, three in places where there are alliances between the PAN and parties of the left. Should there be a triumph of the alliances in Oaxaca, Sinaloa or Puebla, I believe that the PAN and PRD party leaders will save face. Should they pull out a victory in two of those gubernatorial races, they will celebrate with champagne and begin to prepare an alliance to contest the State of Mexico [governorship] in 2011.” The last Mitofsky polls before the election show the PRI leading by 6-10% in all four contested states, but with substantial undecided votes. (Excelsior 6/25, consulta.com)
With three weeks to go before the July 4 elections, the PRI has solid leads in most of the 12 gubernatorial races, based on GCE and Mitofsky polls from late May and early June. In the nine states that it currently controls, the PRI is being seriously challenged only in Oaxaca and (perhaps) Puebla. According to pollster GCE, Eviel Pérez has a 37%-32% lead over PAN-PRD coalition candidate Gabino Cué in Oaxaca, but 28% are undecided. In Puebla, Javier López has 47% compared to panista Rafael Moreno Valle’s 38%. In the other seven states, PRI candidates have double digit leads over the PAN challengers.
An El Universal poll found President Calderón’s approval rating unchanged since February, with 41.2% approving of his job performance 36.8% disapproving. Other indicators of the public’s mood continue to sour: 57% said the Government was doing less than they expected, compared to 55.9% in February and 39.7% one year ago. Sixty-eight percent said things had worsened in the past year. Public insecurity led the list of Mexico’s biggest problems, with 29.2% picking this alternative (up from 21.8% in February).
Posted in Polls
A Reforma poll comparing attitudes of opinion leaders (academics, politicians, businessmen, and civil society leaders) to those of the general population found leaders to be far more critical of the government’s war on narcos than the general survey population, at the same time they were more optimistic on the economic recovery. By 2:1, opinion leaders said they thought the government’s strategy in dealing with drug traffickers was mistaken; the general population was essentially evenly divided. Both groups thought the narcos were winning. On the economic crisis, opinion leaders were split 50:50 on whether the economy was recovering, while the general population’s mood continues to be very negative, with more than 70% saying the crisis continued. (Reforma 6/1)
A Reforma national poll finds the PRI “alone in first place” in preferences for the 2012 presidential elections. “The PRI seems to be winning support nationally, including among sectors that were averse to them in the last election … younger voters, the more highly educated, and independents,” the pollsters write. Among the general population, Enrique Peña Nieto stands head and shoulders above his rivals in the PRI. López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard are neck and neck in the PRD (although AMLO has a wide lead among party members). In the PAN, there is no clear favorite, with Santiago Creel, Josefina Vázquez, and César Nava each commanding only modest support. (Reforma 5/30)
A Reforma poll showed a dead heat in race for the governorship of Oaxaca. The candidate for the PAN-PRD-PT-Covergencia coalition, Gabino Cué, has a 1% lead over the PRI-PVEM candidate Eviel Pérez. Cué, the former mayor of Oaxaca city is well-known, respected, and possibly the PAN’s best chance for avoiding a clean sweep by the PRI in the July 4 gubernatorial races. Pérez is the protégé of outgoing PRI governor Ulises Ruiz. (Reforma 5/19)
Mitofky’s monthly national survey showed President Calderón’s approval rating continuing to move up to 56% from the January 2010 low of 52%. Generic party preferences for the 2012 presidential elections remain largely unchanged, with the PRI well in front of both PAN and PRD, but down slightly from its November 2009 peak. The overall mood remains negative, with 56.9% of respondents saying the nation is on the wrong course – just below the November 2009 peak (57.1%). (www.consulta.com.mx)
A GCE/Milenio telephone survey on March 22 found that by a margin of 58%-21% respondents thought organized crime (rather than the government) was winning the drug war. This is an increase in the margin of 14% points since last July. The Army is the principal institution respondents have confidence in to keep them safe (35.8%), followed by the Federal Investigation Agency, or AFI (11%). The U.S. FBI and DEA score higher than the Justice Ministry or the Mexican police. (www.gabinetece.com.mx)